PIB oficial USA 1er Trimestre

Bureau of Economic Analysis

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the first quarter of 2008,
according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the fourth quarter,
real GDP increased 0.6 percent.

The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for
the advance estimates issued last month.  In the advance estimates, the increase in real GDP was 0.6
percent (see “Revisions” on page 3).

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from
personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for services, exports of goods and services, federal
government spending, and private inventory investment that were partly offset by negative contributions
from residential fixed investment and PCE for durable goods.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the
calculation of GDP, decreased.

The small acceleration in real GDP primarily reflected an upturn in inventory investment that was
partly offset by a deceleration in PCE.

COMENTARIO. Hay que tener cuidado al interpretar estos datos -eso es lo interesante- porque el PIB creció ante todo por un aumento en la inversión; fijense que el consumo creció -como es normal incluso en un recesión- pero más lentamente que el año pasado). Y la parte de la inversión que aumentó fueron los inventarios.

Eso contablemente está bien pero que quiere decir en términos de economía?

Pues que no se está vendiendo y los bienes que se dejan de vender se vuelven inventarios. La producción ha caído bastante y probablemente va a caer más porque -como aprendieron en macro- los productores comienzan a disminuir su producción al ver que los inventarios aumentan. Esto es algo típico al comienzo de la fase recesiva de los ciclos.

Esto y las entradas de abajo entran en el final

Juan Pablo

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